*As Party Insists It Will Field “Credible, Competent” Candidates In 2027 Regardless Of Outcome
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Leaders of the African Democratic Congress are making frantic behind-the-scenes efforts to prevent the planned defection of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso from the opposition party, as multiple sources confirm that the two men’s plans to exit have reached an advanced stage, with an official declaration expected within the week, while the party simultaneously issued a robust public statement rejecting suggestions that it may not participate in the 2027 elections and insisting it will field “credible, competent, and nationally acceptable candidates.”
The parallel tracks of private panic and public confidence capture the ADC’s delicate position: a party that must project strength to its millions of supporters while privately confronting the possibility that two of its most prominent figures, whose combined support bases represent the most formidable electoral coalition in opposition politics, could walk out the door before the May 10 INEC deadline for submission of membership registers.
Multiple sources within the ADC told Sunday Sun Not TheNigeriaLawyer that Obi and Kwankwaso are “seriously considering an exit from the ADC to another political platform this week” in pursuit of their quest to contest the presidential poll in the 2027 general election.
One source confirmed that “plans by both men to defect from the ADC have reached an advanced stage,” noting that “barring any last-minute change, they are expected to make an official declaration to that effect within the week.”
The source noted that while the duo have not formally stated their grievances with the ADC coalition, “it might not be unconnected with concerns over the party’s presidential ticket.”
The reference to the presidential ticket aligns with earlier reports from Obi’s camp that “the party seems designed and structured to favour an individual aspirant” and that the ADC is “not ready to zone their presidential ticket to the South,” concerns that point to a perceived advantage for Atiku Abubakar in the internal jockeying for the nomination.
An ADC leader confirmed to Sunday Sun that the party leadership is aware of the planned exit and is actively working to prevent it.
“There are internal moves to resolve the matter. A lot of work is going on. We hope that by the time they are done, it will be resolved,” the source stated.
The frantic nature of the outreach reflects the ADC’s understanding that losing Obi and Kwankwaso would not merely reduce its membership but could effectively hollow out the opposition coalition that gave the party its political significance. Without them, the ADC would lose the Obidient Movement’s massive urban youth support base and the Kwankwasiyya Movement’s disciplined following across the North-West, leaving the party reliant on Atiku’s networks and the institutional structures that Mark and Aregbesola have built, a formidable but significantly diminished coalition.
ADC National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi, speaking to Sunday Sun, maintained that the reports remained speculative.
“For us, it is still at the realm of speculation. We have not seen any official announcement to that effect. When that happens, we will respond accordingly,” Abdullahi stated.
However, he confirmed that party leaders were reaching out to the two men, while offering a nuanced characterisation of the purpose.
“It is not to prevent them from moving out, but to understand what their real position is beyond what is in the rumour mill. So, party leaders and critical stakeholders are reaching out to them to know what exactly their positions are,” Abdullahi stated.
“It depends on what they say. But it will be within their right to do so,” he added, acknowledging that Obi and Kwankwaso have the right to leave if they choose.
The distinction between “preventing them from leaving” and “understanding their real position” is a delicate piece of public messaging. It avoids the appearance of desperation while implicitly acknowledging that the party knows something is wrong and is trying to ascertain whether the situation can be salvaged.
Founding National Chairman of the ADC, Chief Ralph Nwosu, expressed confidence that the party leadership could resolve whatever issues are driving the potential defections, particularly if the concern centres on the presidential nomination.
“The National Chairman and the current leaders are very experienced and patriotic Nigerians and they are going to be able to deal with it,” Nwosu stated.
He pointed to arrangements already in place for a fair nomination process: “One thing that was clear from the beginning is that the party agreed that if we are not able to reach a consensus, we are going to do a very transparent primary.”
The reference to a “transparent primary” addresses one of the core concerns attributed to Obi’s camp, that the party’s structure is “skewed in favour of an aspirant” and that any primary would not amount to a “credible primary election.” Nwosu’s assurance that the process will be transparent is an implicit offer to Obi and Kwankwaso: stay, and you will get a fair shot at the ticket.
The struggle over the presidential ticket remains the unspoken driver behind the potential defections.
The ADC’s crowded field includes Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, each commanding regional bases and personal loyalists.
Two competing tendencies have emerged. The Obi/Kwankwaso camp, formalised through the “OK Movement” and the Unity Summit held on May 2 at Barcelona Hotel in Abuja, favours a joint ticket that supporters claim is “making the presidency jittery.” The Atiku camp favours an Atiku/Makinde or Atiku/Amaechi combination that is said to have stronger support among ADC leaders in the South-West and the North.
If the ADC cannot resolve this internal competition, whether through consensus or a primary that all sides accept as legitimate, the losing faction will almost certainly leave, taking their support base with them and potentially crippling the party’s electoral viability.
Obi and Kwankwaso’s consideration of an exit to the NDC, where they have reportedly been offered an unchallenged presidential ticket, suggests they have concluded that winning the ADC primary against Atiku on terms they consider fair is either unlikely or not worth the risk when a guaranteed ticket is available elsewhere.
In a separate statement issued on Saturday, Abdullahi pushed back forcefully against suggestions that the ADC may not participate in the 2027 elections, describing such reports as “entirely unfounded, mischievous, and designed to create confusion where none exists.”
“The African Democratic Congress wishes to state clearly and unequivocally that we remain focused on our mission to provide a viable alternative and safeguard democratic plurality,” Abdullahi stated.
“Let us be clear. The ADC will present candidates in the 2027 general elections. Not just candidates, but credible, competent, and nationally acceptable candidates who are capable of leading this country out of its current crisis,” Abdullahi declared.
He insisted the party faces no legal barriers to contesting: “We remain a law-abiding political party, fully compliant with the Constitution and the Electoral Act. There is no legal impediment to our participation in the 2027 elections, and any suggestion to the contrary is a deliberate attempt to mislead the public and dampen the growing momentum around our party.”
He described the ADC as “the primary opposition platform in Nigeria” and said the party is “organising across the country, mobilising Nigerians who are tired of insecurity, rising costs of living, and limited opportunities, and building the structures required not just to contest, but to win.”
“We urge our members, supporters, and all well-meaning Nigerians to disregard these baseless assertions. The task before us is too important to be derailed by speculation,” Abdullahi stated.
ADC National Youth Leader Balarabe Rufai provided the most candid assessment from within the party, confirming that movement was already happening while cautioning against drawing premature conclusions.
“From Kano, where I come from, some members of the Kwankwasiyya movement are already moving to another party. That is clear,” Rufai stated.
“But to say Kwankwasiyya, or the Obidient movement, is moving wholesale, you cannot say that for sure, because they have not said a word. So we are watching,” he added.
Rufai’s confirmation that Kwankwasiyya members in Kano are already relocating to another party, even before any formal announcement from Kwankwaso, suggests that grassroots supporters are not waiting for their principal to make a decision but are already acting on the widely circulated reports. This creates a momentum of its own: if significant numbers of Kwankwasiyya members have already registered with the NDC or another party ahead of the May 10 deadline, it becomes harder for Kwankwaso to remain in the ADC even if the party addresses his concerns.
Rufai warned against actions that could weaken the opposition or distort the democratic process: “What we are saying is let democracy work. Not to intimidate people, not to compromise institutions that are supposed to be independent in a democracy to be doing the bidding of government.”
He described the ADC as “a party of endurance” and cited rapid membership growth as evidence of its viability: “We have recorded close to four million registered members within just one month.”
“Any attempt to neutralise the momentum the ADC has built is not good for our democracy. It will amount to a betrayal of the trust of the people,” Rufai stated.
The urgency of the ADC’s retention efforts is driven by the May 10 INEC deadline for submission of membership registers, now just seven days away.
If Obi and Kwankwaso defect to the NDC before May 10, their names can appear on the NDC’s register, making them eligible for NDC primaries. If they remain in the ADC past May 10, they are locked into the ADC platform for the 2027 elections, regardless of whether they win or lose the party’s presidential primary.
This creates a binary choice that must be made within days, not weeks: stay and compete for the ADC ticket against Atiku and others, or leave for the NDC where a presidential ticket has reportedly been offered without contest.
The ADC’s “round the clock” efforts to prevent the defection are therefore operating under the same compressed timeline. Whatever resolution the party leadership offers, whether on zoning, primary procedures, or ticket arrangements, must be offered and accepted before the May 10 deadline expires.
Kwankwaso’s own statement, issued on Friday, confirmed consultations with the NDC and PRP but stated that “no final decision has been taken.” He said the ADC “has not zoned its presidential ticket” and that he has “neither declared any intention to run for president nor endorsed any aspirant,” describing all speculation as “premature and unfounded.”
However, he acknowledged the ADC’s “precarious position” and confirmed that “like other major stakeholders, we have commenced wide-ranging consultations, including with leaders from the NDC, PRP and others, to explore the best options for protecting our democratic interests.”
His statement that a decision would be announced “in the soonest possible time” indicates the matter will be resolved within days, aligning with the sources who say an official declaration is expected within the week.
The ADC’s crisis comes down to a fundamental question that the party’s leaders must answer before the May 10 deadline: can they offer Obi and Kwankwaso a path to the presidential ticket that is more attractive than the unchallenged ticket reportedly available at the NDC?
If the answer involves a transparent primary in which all aspirants compete on equal terms, Obi and Kwankwaso must weigh the risk of losing that primary against the certainty of an NDC ticket. If the answer involves consensus that favours one candidate over others, the losing candidates will leave regardless of any retention effort.
If the ADC cannot answer the question at all, because its leadership structures are still entangled in litigation, its congresses have been voided by the Federal High Court, and the AGF is seeking its deregistration, then the practical impossibility of conducting a credible nomination process becomes the answer itself, and the NDC’s offer becomes the only viable option for politicians who need to be on the ballot.
As Abdullahi stated: “It depends on what they say. But it will be within their right to do so.”
The coming days will reveal what they say. The May 10 deadline will enforce what they do. And the 2027 elections will reflect whether the opposition can hold together or whether Nigeria’s primary opposition coalition fractures at the moment of its greatest test.
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