Dr. Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, has issued a stark warning amid rising political instability in West Africa, attributing the recent surge in military coups to the manipulative tactics of entrenched leaders desperate to cling to power.
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Speaking on Arise TV News Night during a discussion on the 55th ordinary session of the ECOWAS Mediation and Security Council in Abuja, Amadi dissected the root causes of the region’s democratic erosion. He emphasized that coups are not random acts of rebellion but direct responses to systemic failures engineered by incumbents.
“Everything about a military coup is about efforts by incumbents to perpetuate themselves,” Amadi stated. “Either by rigging the rules to extend their tenure, making it impossible for the opposition to present a competitive election, or capturing certain institutions especially the election management body [and] the judiciary so that there’s just no way but for people to resort to extra-constitutional solutions.”
Amadi’s comments came as ECOWAS leaders grapple with a wave of coups and election-related crises, from the attempted putsch in Benin to post-election violence in Guinea-Bissau. The regional body declared a “state of emergency” in its rhetoric, with elections once seen as cornerstones of stability now acting as flashpoints for unrest.
The scholar urged immediate reforms, warning that without addressing these triggers, more upheavals are inevitable. “If we don’t change the conditions that trigger them… there could be many coming,” he cautioned, pointing to ECOWAS’s robust protocols that remain largely unenforced. He criticized the organization for failing to implement peer review mechanisms or enforce court judgments against errant states, allowing bad governance to fester.
Amadi reserved particular scorn for Nigeria, the region’s economic powerhouse, calling it a “bad example” that undermines democratic consolidation. “Nigeria is putting every foot wrong,” he said, highlighting how incumbents sabotage opposition parties and courts prioritize loyalty over justice. He contrasted this with brighter spots like Ghana and Senegal, which have maintained firmer grips on democratic processes despite economic challenges.
The discussion also touched on intertwined threats: insecurity from Sahel terrorism spilling into coastal states, geopolitical shifts diminishing Western influence, and a “virus” of copycat coups infecting the subregion. Amadi likened the phenomenon to historical waves first independence, then democracy, now authoritarian rollback stressing that reversal demands accountable leadership, starting with Nigeria.
“You are trapping people in a system… not providing for economic well-being, not giving them freedom,” Amadi lamented. “Poverty compounding conflict, conflict compounding bad governance. So perhaps in the next one decade, West Africa will be in ruins.”
As President Patrice Talon’s term in Benin nears its end amid speculation of tenure extension, Amadi’s analysis underscores the high stakes. ECOWAS is expected to release a communiqué from the Abuja summit outlining anti-coup measures, but Amadi expressed skepticism about its impact without genuine commitment from heads of state.
“If Nigeria conducts a free and fair election… it spills over,” he concluded optimistically. “This virus doesn’t need vaccines; it needs humans to do the right things particularly those in government.”
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