The National Assembly is set to consider President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s controversial Rivers State emergency declaration today, following unexpected delays in both chambers that have heightened political tensions and raised constitutional questions.

President Tinubu faces a significant mathematical challenge in securing the constitutionally required two-thirds majority in both chambers. Based on current party distributions:

In the Senate (109 seats):

  • Two-thirds majority required: 72 senators
  • APC controls only 58 seats
  • Opposition parties hold 50 seats (PDP: 37, Labour: 7, Others: 6)
  • One seat vacant

In the House of Representatives (360 seats):

  • Two-thirds majority required: 240 representatives
  • APC controls only 175 seats
  • Opposition parties hold 182 seats (PDP: 118, Labour: 35, Others: 29)
  • Three seats vacant

Even with perfect attendance and party-line voting, the ruling APC would fall short in both chambers without significant support from opposition lawmakers.

The emergency declaration letter, initially expected to be read in both chambers yesterday, was conspicuously delayed. In the Senate, the motion was stood down twice amid reports that insufficient members were present to reach the 73-vote threshold. Many senators were reportedly absent due to Ramadan observances or pilgrimages to Saudi Arabia.

Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Inter-Parliamentary Affairs, confirmed that absent lawmakers were being recalled to Abuja. “First thing tomorrow morning, information will go to other members who are fasting and praying in their homes. Tomorrow they will be here,” he assured.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives witnessed tense moments as members divided along partisan lines. Two female lawmakers, Blessing Amadi (PDP, Rivers) and Marie Ebikake, engaged in a heated exchange over the constitutionality of the President’s action. Though physical confrontation was avoided, some members were seen banging tables and shouting, “Nothing will happen here today!”

Order was eventually restored when Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu, who presided over the session, announced the presence of schoolchildren on an excursion, effectively defusing the situation.

The National Assembly operates under a tight 48-hour constitutional window to either ratify or reject the emergency declaration. This deadline expires tomorrow (Thursday), adding urgency to today’s proceedings.

Constitutional experts note that the President’s decision to swear in a Sole Administrator for Rivers State before securing parliamentary approval has raised eyebrows. The move appears to presuppose National Assembly ratification, though the numbers suggest this is far from certain.

As the vote approaches, political observers are questioning the President’s strategy. Has Tinubu, long regarded as a champion of constitutional democracy, miscalculated the parliamentary arithmetic? Or does he have assurances of sufficient cross-party support to secure the necessary votes?

Others wonder if the Rivers crisis represents a larger political calculation involving the President’s relationship with Nyesom Wike, the former Rivers governor and current FCT Minister, whose power struggle with Governor Sim Fubara precipitated the crisis.

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