Nigeria’s political landscape is witnessing seismic shifts as major opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), struggle with internal crises, paving the way for the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to emerge as the potential linchpin of a coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections.
![](https://thenigerialawyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/NBBSPIDEL.png")
![](https://thenigerialawyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-Summer-IDRI-Masterclass.jpg")
The movement gained traction with the defection of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, a founding member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), to the SDP. El-Rufai’s move followed closed-door meetings with former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola, ex-Interior Minister, and Pastor Tunde Bakare, who was former President Muhammadu Buhari’s running mate in 2011. Sources reveal El-Rufai also met Buhari in Kaduna last week, reportedly informing him of his decision to abandon the APC.
Insiders privy to the coalition’s strategy say El-Rufai’s SDP entry is a “litmus test” to gauge the APC’s reaction before other opposition heavyweights follow suit. The coalition’s broader goal is to rally disaffected APC members, particularly those from Buhari’s defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), who feel sidelined in the current administration.
Discussions within the coalition reportedly involve high-profile defections, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (PDP), 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, ex-Transportation Minister Chibuike Amaechi, and former Attorney General Abubakar Malami.
However, Atiku, a vocal advocate for opposition unity, has denied leaving the PDP, stating on Sunday: “I remain a bonafide member of the PDP.” Similarly, ex-Ekiti Governor Kayode Fayemi dismissed rumors of his APC exit, declaring, “I am a card-carrying foundation member of the APC.”
El-Rufai’s estrangement from the APC deepened after the Senate rejected his ministerial nomination in 2023—a decision he blamed on President Tinubu. His recent remarks on Arise TV, where he claimed “the APC left me,” further signaled his exit.
The SDP’s appeal lies in its relative stability compared to the PDP and LP, both embroiled in leadership tussles and defections. The party has long been viewed as a viable alternative, with roots in past political realignments. During the PDP’s 2015 crisis, factions considered adopting the SDP if internal disputes persisted. Even Tinubu loyalists reportedly eyed the SDP as a backup plan ahead of the 2023 APC primaries.
Rumors of an El-Rufai-Peter Obi presidential ticket have circulated, allegedly backed by some PDP governors. However, the PDP Governors’ Forum swiftly denied endorsing such plans, calling the claims “baseless.”
With less than two years before the 2027 presidential elections, the PDP and Labour Party have remained enmeshed in a series of crises, leading to massive defections from their folds.
The intra-party crisis in the PDP, which preceded the 2023 presidential election, has gotten worse as the battle for control of the party between the G-5 PDP Group, led by the then Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike and the pro-Atiku group has assumed different dimensions.
From the agitation for the resignation of PDP acting national chairman Amb Illiya Damagum to the battle between Wike and his estranged successor and Rivers State governor, Sim Fubara, for control of the party, the party has yet to find a common front.
A tussle over the national secretary position between Senator Samuel Anyanwu and Hon Sunday Ude-Okoye has further weighed down the former national ruling party.
Although the party’s governors, Board of Trustees (BoT) and National Working Committee (NWC) have recognised Ude-Okoye as national secretary following judgements of high and appellate courts, Anyanwu insists on retaining the position and is awaiting the Supreme Court judgement on the matter.
A new crisis emerged recently over the leadership of the party in the South-South geo-political zone. These crises have caused a split with the PDP national leadership and a blackout of aspirants ahead of the November Anambra election.
PDP leaders have accused the ruling APC of instigating the crisis within their folds, saying the plot is to weaken the opposition and create a one-party state. The situation is no different in the Labour Party (LP), which has also been engulfed in a leadership crisis.
Following a protracted opposition to Julius Abure’s return as LP national chairman, some party leaders set up a Caretaker Committee led by Senator Nenadi Usman, a former minister, in 2024.
Although Abure challenged the decision in court and won, the party has not been the same again. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which came fourth in the last presidential election, is not faring any better.
The party’s founder, Boniface Aniebonam, has been fighting to reclaim his position from the 2023 presidential candidate, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whom he accused of hijacking the party he joined in 2022.
The crisis has produced three different factions—one is loyal to Kwankwaso, one is loyal to Aniebonam, and the third is loyal to the Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf. So far, SDP appears to be the only national party devoid of rancour, bickering and defection.
Meanwhile, Labour Party spokesperson Obiorah Ifoh downplayed the coalition buzz, emphasizing LP’s growth: “We are not concerned about present alignments. Mandate-holders moving parties is irrelevant. Labour will welcome defectors in due course.” Ifoh added that the party awaits a Supreme Court ruling on defection laws before formalizing its 2027 strategy.
As Nigeria inches closer to 2027, the opposition’s ability to present a united front against Tinubu’s APC remains uncertain. For now, all eyes remain on El-Rufai’s SDP gamble—and whether it can galvanize a fractured political arena into a credible threat.
[A MUST HAVE] Evidence Act Demystified With Recent And Contemporary Cases And Materials
Available now for NGN 40,000 at ASC Publications, 10, Boyle Street, Onikan, Lagos. Beside High Court, TBS. Email publications@ayindesanni.com or WhatsApp +2347056667384. Purchase Link: https://paystack.com/buy/evidence-act-complete-annotation
______________________________________________________________________ “Enhance Legal Practice With Authoritative Reports” — Alexander Payne Offers Comprehensive Law Reports, Spanning Over A Century Of Nigerian Jurisprudence
Interested buyers are encouraged to place their orders and enquiries via:
0704 444 4777, 0704 444 4999, 0818 199 9888
Website: www.alexandernigeria.com
