The Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, has projected that Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product could rise from about $278 billion in 2025 to $600 billion by 2030, driven by stronger private-sector investment and the multiplier effects of major industrial projects such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
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Rewane said the 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery could become a major growth pole for the Nigerian economy by stimulating investment, manufacturing and exports, while also strengthening the naira and improving the country’s foreign exchange reserves. He spoke in Abuja during an investor roadshow ahead of the planned initial public offering of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals.
According to his presentation, the projected expansion to a $600 billion economy would require annual real GDP growth to accelerate from about four per cent to between seven and eight per cent.
The projection also assumes inflation moderating from 15 per cent to between eight and 10 per cent, non-oil GDP growth increasing from between four and five per cent to seven to eight per cent, while crude oil production rises from about 1.5 million barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day.
Rewane further projected that investment would rise from 26 per cent of GDP to 36 per cent, while manufacturing growth could accelerate from three per cent to between eight and 10 per cent. He also envisaged a significant expansion in energy supply and improved reliability of electricity and other energy infrastructure.
Using the expenditure approach to GDP, his presentation estimated that a $600 billion Nigerian economy could comprise household consumption of $240 billion, representing 40 per cent; investment of $216 billion, or 36 per cent; government consumption of $36 billion, representing six per cent; and net exports of $108 billion, accounting for 18 per cent.
Rewane said the Dangote Refinery and similar private investments could help deliver that transformation because of their multiplier effects across different sectors.
“What the Dangote refinery is doing is getting into investment and adding that, and that gives you a multiplier effect,” he said.
“If you look at that, let’s project forward what will happen after this investment is completed. This is what it’s going to look like. What was $278bn? It’s going to be about $600bn, and all the variables change.”
He argued that stronger investment and increased net exports would have significant implications for Nigeria’s foreign exchange market and external reserves.
“This means the naira gets stronger, the reserves get valuable, and Nigerians begin to enjoy from this private sector-led investment. So the government creates the environment. The private sector invests. International investors come in. Domestic investors come in. African investors come in. And there’s a significant expansion of the economy,” Rewane said.
He compared the potential transformation with the experiences of countries such as Vietnam, Mauritius and Rwanda, arguing that concentrated investment in strategic sectors can generate growth in other parts of the economy.
Rewane also stressed the economic benefits of processing crude oil locally instead of exporting it in raw form, saying domestic refining could significantly increase the value obtained from every barrel of crude.
“If you export one barrel of oil, you get $100 per barrel today. If you do the value add and transform this into a conversion to wealth, you get the equivalent of $200 per barrel,” he said.
According to him, expanding domestic refining capacity could support import substitution, deepen Nigeria’s capital market and reduce Africa’s dependence on refined petroleum products imported from Europe and the Middle East.
The economic projections come as the Dangote Group prepares to take the refinery public through an initial public offering.
President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said the company plans to raise ₦2.15 trillion, equivalent to about $1.6 billion, to finance an expansion programme at the refinery.
Dangote’s message was delivered by the Senior Adviser, Special Projects and Strategic Relations to the Group President, Dangote Industries Limited, Fatima Wali-Abdurrahman.
He said the shares would be offered at ₦525 each, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares, as part of efforts to enable wider participation by Nigerians.
“The offer price and minimum subscription level is to allow for wider participation as we want every Nigerian to own a piece of this asset. That is why we have called it The IPO for the People,” Dangote said.
He added that the group was also considering listing the company in about six other African countries as part of its continental expansion strategy.
Chairman of the event, Oluwagbenga Oyebode, said the offer comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at ₦525 per share, with expected net proceeds of about ₦2.1 trillion.
According to him, the offer represents about 3.3 per cent of the refinery’s issued capital, while the entire proceeds are expected to be deployed as growth capital to finance the next phase of expansion rather than being used to repair the company’s balance sheet.
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