The Senate has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) submitted by President Bola Tinubu, ahead of the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly.
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In approving the framework, the Senate reduced the crude oil benchmark price for 2026 to $60 per barrel, down from the $64.85 earlier proposed by the executive, while fixing benchmarks at $65 and $70 per barrel for 2027 and 2028, respectively.
The upper chamber said the adjustment was necessitated by heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, as well as volatility in international oil prices.
The approval followed the consideration and adoption of the report of the Senate Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), during plenary.
Under the approved framework, the Senate endorsed a ₦54.46 trillion federal expenditure plan for 2026, designed to insulate the economy from global shocks. The projected exchange rate was pegged at ₦1,512/$ for 2026, ₦1,432.15/$ for 2027, and ₦1,383.18/$ for 2028, in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy direction on exchange rate stability.
Inflation is projected to moderate steadily, with rates estimated at 16.5 per cent in 2026, 13 per cent in 2027, and 9 per cent in 2028, reflecting anticipated gains from monetary tightening and structural reforms.
Despite the conservative oil price outlook, the Senate sustained crude oil production projections at 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, 1.88 mbpd for 2027, and 1.92 mbpd for 2028, expressing confidence in ongoing sector reforms and efforts to stabilise output.
The Senate also retained real GDP growth projections of 4.68 per cent for 2026, 5.96 per cent for 2027, and 7.9 per cent for 2028, citing expected gains from tax reforms and broader economic restructuring.
On fiscal operations, the Senate approved FGN retained revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, new borrowings of ₦17.88 trillion, and debt service obligations of ₦15.52 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of ₦20.13 trillion for 2026.
The framework provides ₦1.376 trillion for pensions, gratuities, and retirees’ benefits; capital expenditure (exclusive of transfers) of ₦20.131 trillion; statutory transfers of ₦3.152 trillion; and a Sinking Fund of ₦388.54 billion. Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was approved at ₦15.265 trillion, while special intervention funds for recurrent and capital spending were set at ₦200 billion and ₦14 billion, respectively.
The Senate endorsed the effective implementation of newly enacted tax laws and approved the introduction of a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Service, in collaboration with relevant agencies. The policy is expected to enhance revenue assurance, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages, strengthen transparency, and bolster national security.
In his concluding remarks, Senator Musa thanked members of the Senate and the Committee on Finance for their diligence, expressing optimism that the approved framework would support sustainable economic growth and fiscal stability.
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