A data from the CBN’s January 2025 Monthly Economic Report paints a grim picture of Nigeria’s fiscal health. The Federal Government’s debt servicing obligations totaled N696.27 billion, significantly outstripping its total retained revenue of N483.47 billion.

This implies that debt servicing alone consumed 144 per cent of the government’s total earnings in January, highlighting an unsustainable debt-to-revenue trajectory.

Despite marginal improvements in some revenue streams, overall retained revenue stagnated. Compared to January 2024, when N479.21 billion was recorded, January 2025’s figure reflected a meager 0.89 per cent increase.

The CBN report further noted:

  • Federation Account receipts contributed N167.69 billion.
  • VAT Pool Account provided N90.73 billion.
  • Independent Revenue plummeted by 66.14 per cent year-on-year to N32.28 billion from N95.34 billion.
  • Exchange Gains rose by 35.6 per cent, reaching N188.09 billion.

Revenue from Excess Crude sales and the ‘Others’ category was nonexistent during the month.

More worryingly, a month-on-month comparison showed that January’s N483.47 billion retained revenue represented a sharp 69.19 per cent decline from December 2024’s N1.57 trillion, suggesting a severe revenue contraction.

In contrast, while debt servicing obligations remained relatively stable (N696.27 billion in January 2025 vs N755.86 billion in January 2024), the government’s capacity to cover these costs has deteriorated significantly due to poor revenue growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also raised fresh concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal outlook. During a press briefing on the 2025 Global Policy Agenda in Washington, D.C., IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that falling oil prices are exerting greater budgetary pressure on oil-producing countries like Nigeria.

“Oil producers like Nigeria are under budget pressure due to lower oil prices,” Georgieva stated. “Broader slowing global growth will affect everyone, and we have already downgraded the continent’s growth prospects.”

She called on Nigeria and other African nations to urgently scale up domestic revenue mobilization, emphasizing the need to leverage technology to expand tax bases, curb evasion, and strengthen fiscal buffers.

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