US-based Nigerian lawyer and democracy and human rights advocate, Emmanuel Ogebe, winner of the Federal Government Award of Merit to Nigerians in the Diaspora, has said that since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu governed Lagos State, no one else has genuinely ruled the state, describing every successor as “a caretaker for Tinubu,” and warning that the same pattern will repeat itself at the national level after Tinubu leaves office.
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Ogebe spoke on Channels TV’s Inside Sources programme in a wide-ranging interview covering the 2027 presidential contest, corruption allegations exchanged between the Tinubu and Atiku camps, the takeover of opposition-controlled states, US congressional action on Nigeria, and the proposal that Tinubu should hand over to a northern Christian.
Responding to the proposal that President Tinubu should, after his tenure, hand over to a northern Nigerian Christian, Ogebe said the precedent set in Lagos makes such an expectation unrealistic.
“After Tinubu ruled in Lagos, nobody else has ruled again. Whether we like it or not, nobody else has ruled. Everybody who is there is a caretaker for Tinubu,” Ogebe stated.
“I do not see a Nigeria where after Tinubu finishes as president, he will allow anybody else to be there who is not a caretaker. And this is why the takeover of all the parties is happening, of all the states is happening,” he stated.
Ogebe made a second argument against relying on a promise of future accommodation, drawing on Tinubu’s own political history.
“We are saying that oh, this is the promise for the future. Was that not the same kind of agreement he had with Buhari? And then when the time came, Buhari sabotaged him. So these kinds of agreements are not enforceable,” he stated.
“We would rather have representation now and know that he cares about us, than have another four years knowing that this man didn’t care for us, he didn’t reflect us in the system. And we have no assurance that in the future he’s going to invite us. So it needs to be addressed now,” Ogebe stated.
Asked whether Lagos and Nigeria are comparable given the competing structural and personal forces at the national level, Ogebe argued that the takeover of states has already answered that question.
He first set out what he described as former President Muhammadu Buhari’s two attempts to reshape Nigeria’s political map: “General Buhari did two things to try and change the political map of Nigeria and ensure northern hegemony. One was bringing in Fulanis from across the subregion into Nigeria and infiltrating all of the states. In fact, I was shocked to learn just this week that even Bayelsa, the creeks, were occupied by Fulanis.”
“The second thing he did was to build a rail line of $4 billion in Tunisia to make it possible for Nigerians to come in and vote in Nigerian elections and go back. Now, who knows how effective that structure is and how it is going,” Ogebe stated.
“But what Tinubu has done, which is very interesting, is the takeover of those states. I can assure you, somebody who can control over 30 states in Nigeria is not somebody to be toyed with,” he stated.
He pointed to Lagos as the demonstration of that capacity: “Someone who can control Lagos. You even saw that they tried to vote against him when he was running for president, and he still found his way to fight and reclaim Lagos at least in the governorship, even though he lost there in the presidency.”
On the corruption allegations being traded between the Tinubu and Atiku campaigns, Ogebe was dismissive.
“I don’t know whether it was Fela who sang a song. I think it goes, ‘You be thief, I no be thief’ or something like that. We have a kettle and a pot contesting against each other, which one is blackest at the bottom. And that is a distraction,” he stated.
“Let me put this very starkly. When Tinubu was governor of Lagos, he essentially bought off the state. When Atiku was vice president, he essentially bought off a lot of state resources. So anything one accuses the other of, the other has his own finger pointing at them as well,” Ogebe stated.
He also explained why the contest has moved abroad: “It’s interesting that the reason why our presidential elections are internationalised is because of the weak rule of law at home in Nigeria. If people had been held accountable for their actions in Nigeria, we would not need to be going to foreign fora to pursue some kind of accountability.”
Ogebe, who said he was consulted on the William Jefferson case by Jefferson’s team, distinguished between the two matters.
On Atiku: “In the case of Atiku, he was never charged in court. What happened was that the US Congress did a comprehensive investigation about illicit foreign funds, and Atiku was used as the primary case study. I believe the amount involved was about $40 million. He had a wife who was living here and she had a charity. So a lot of funds were coming in and going out, and ultimately she left the US and Atiku stopped coming to the US. So that is what is on record, a legislative record. It’s not a criminal record.”
On the Jefferson case: “Atiku was not the target in that case. It was Jefferson. And Jefferson claimed to have collected money that he was going to give Atiku as a bribe, and I think it was $100,000. From reading the case, I knew that it was fake. Atiku can dash you $100,000. He cannot collect $100,000 from you. So it was Jefferson, the Congressman, who was the primary target and who was convicted.”
On Tinubu: “His case is different in the sense that there was an actual court proceeding by the Department of Justice against him also for money laundering. But this did not involve illicit influence from Nigeria or corruption money. It involved illicit drug finances.”
“So both cases have been well documented in the US system, one in the judicial system, one in the legislative system,” Ogebe stated.
Ogebe disclosed a development affecting the opposition ticket.
“Even though Peter Obi has no criminal case in the US, he’s spotless. Guess what? His vice presidential candidate Kwankwaso recently became a subject of interest in the US Congress and he’s being blacklisted for religious persecution,” he stated.
“I think that was an unfortunate call. Kano is a very, very problematic state for religious freedom, but I think that Kwankwaso should not have been the ideal person to have been cited,” Ogebe stated.
Asked about Kwankwaso’s claim that his name has since been removed from the list, Ogebe said he could not confirm it: “I’m not aware that that has happened and we will check with our contacts in Congress. But you know how bicameral legislatures work. One house proposes a bill and then the other brings its own counterpart and they reconcile. So it is possible that on the Senate side, they decided not to include his name in the reconciliation process.”
He disclosed that other advocacy was ongoing: “I know that some of us were trying to push that on the Senate side they should include temporary protected status for Nigerians and resettlement for Nigerian refugees. So in that mix, a lot of things can happen. Things can be added, things can be removed.”
Ogebe’s sharpest assessment concerned governance performance, which he identified as the real explanation for the mudslinging.
He offered Abia State Governor Alex Otti as the counter-example: “Out of the entire 36 governors who are seeking a second term, if you want to count those who have performed so well that their re-election is not in doubt, we start with Labour Governor Otti. Can you imagine? He is a one-state governor. Labour has no other state. And their only state governor, already in Abia State, people are asking if his wife can run in future so that when he finishes, she’ll continue for him.”
“You need to understand, in Igbo land they have a terrible track record of governance. And this man has already made such a mark that he is being returned virtually unopposed,” Ogebe stated.
He then drew the contrast: “If Tinubu and others had performed in such a manner, they would not need to be trading insults on who is a thief or who is not a thief. The fact of the matter is that there has been systemic governance failure.”
“And the Tinubu who revolutionalised Lagos, we’ve not seen his fingerprints or his footprints in his governance of Nigeria in the past three years. This is why they are fighting on their destruction,” Ogebe stated.
On the Florida Congressman Gregory Steube’s bill to freeze US aid to Nigeria until religious persecution declines, and the US President’s letter to Tinubu expressing pride in standing with him against terror, which the Presidency publicised, Ogebe was dismissive of the letter’s significance.
“I would want to say that the letter is too much ado about nothing,” he stated, recalling that as a boy of nine or ten he had himself written to General Buhari as head of state commending the War Against Indiscipline.
The interview was conducted on the Inside Sources programme. Emmanuel Ogebe is a US-based Nigerian lawyer, long-standing democracy and human rights advocate, and winner of the Federal Government Award of Merit to Nigerians in the Diaspora.
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