Yiaga Africa has found that 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, but warned that insecurity, fear of electoral violence, declining confidence in electoral institutions and vote buying could prevent that willingness from translating into actual turnout.
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The finding is contained in the third edition of the organisation’s National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, titled Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027, unveiled in Abuja on Wednesday. The survey was conducted in September 2026 and involved 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were reached through face-to-face interviews in rural communities.
Yiaga Africa Board Chairman, Hussein Abdul, said the study was designed to examine Nigerians’ readiness to participate in the elections, the factors motivating them to vote and the concerns that could eventually keep them away from polling units.
While the 84 per cent voting intention represents strong public interest in the elections, the survey showed that the commitment behind that intention remained fragile. Only 47 per cent of respondents said they were “very likely” to vote, while Yiaga said just 41 per cent were both likely to vote and very certain of their choice.
The organisation consequently cautioned political parties, the Independent National Electoral Commission, security agencies and other election stakeholders against interpreting the high voting intention as a guarantee of equally high turnout on election day.
Security emerged as one of the strongest concerns. Sixty-one per cent of respondents said fear of violence could prevent them from voting, with the figure rising to 78 per cent in the North-East. Eighty-three per cent said improved security would make them more likely to participate in the elections.
Abdul said the findings should not be treated as verdicts on the 2027 election but as warnings to institutions and political actors that action would be required to convert citizens’ stated willingness into actual participation.
He urged political parties to intensify voter mobilisation and civic education, particularly in a country where the size of the voter register has not always translated into comparable turnout at the polls.
Confidence in the institutions responsible for administering and resolving electoral disputes was also found to be weak.
Only 34 per cent of respondents expressed confidence that INEC would conduct credible elections in 2027, down from 45 per cent in each of Yiaga Africa’s two earlier survey rounds.
The survey nevertheless found somewhat stronger confidence in election technology, with 49 per cent expressing trust in the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal for accreditation and transmission of election results.
The findings also reflected dissatisfaction with broader political and economic conditions. According to the survey figures presented at the launch, 49 per cent identified a desire for a change in leadership as their leading motivation to vote.
Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the results showed that Nigerians had not abandoned the democratic process, but wanted stronger assurance that their participation would be meaningful.
“Nigerians have not given up on democracy, but want votes to count,” she said.
According to Bichi, the challenge was no longer merely whether citizens were interested in voting but whether election managers, security agencies and political actors could remove the obstacles capable of discouraging them before polling day.
“What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money,” she said.
She described Nigeria’s persistent turnout challenge as a problem of converting willingness into participation rather than one of outright voter apathy.
“Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem, and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics,” Bichi said.
The latest findings also show a rebound in voting intention compared with Yiaga Africa’s previous survey. The proportion of respondents saying they were likely or very likely to vote rose from 73 per cent in March 2026 to 84 per cent in September, although the percentage describing themselves as “very likely” to vote has declined slightly over the three survey rounds.
At a panel discussion during the launch, Executive Director of the Ene Obi Centre for Development, Ene Obi, called for sustained mobilisation of citizens, arguing that confidence in the democratic process could improve if Nigerians participated actively and protected the integrity of their votes.
“We need to encourage citizens to go out and vote because this is their country. For civil society, we are not worried about who wins but about the process, because the process must be fair and transparent,” she said.
Obi also urged election stakeholders not to overlook internally displaced persons and Nigerians living in areas affected by severe insecurity or described as difficult for state institutions to access.
Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, Chief Ezenwa Nwagwu, meanwhile, urged the media to give attention to the finding that 84 per cent of respondents still expressed willingness to vote, rather than focusing exclusively on the negative indicators.
He also called for greater investment in political reforms alongside electoral reforms, arguing that election integrity is influenced not only by laws and institutions but also by the values and conduct of political actors.
Yiaga Africa consequently called on the government and security agencies to strengthen election security, while urging INEC, the judiciary, political parties, civil society and the media to take steps capable of rebuilding public confidence, improving electoral credibility and confronting vote buying.
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