A political analyst has revealed that Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and his Bauchi State counterpart Bala Mohammed may adopt a dual strategy of sending their proxies to contest elections under the African Democratic Congress while remaining in the Peoples Democratic Party to fight FCT Minister Nyesom Wike — with the ultimate aim of ensuring Wike cannot use the PDP as a vehicle for his political ambitions in 2031.
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The revelation came as Wike himself publicly mocked Makinde at a purported 107th National Executive Committee meeting of the PDP faction loyal to him, warning the Oyo governor not to initiate “a fight that he can’t fight” and taking a personal swipe at Makinde’s business interests.
Meanwhile, the Wike-backed PDP National Caretaker Working Committee announced that sale of nomination forms for the party’s forthcoming national convention had commenced, pushing ahead with preparations despite the unresolved factional crisis.
Political analyst Sumner Sambo, speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show, laid bare what he described as the strategic thinking within the Makinde-Mohammed camp.
Sambo said both governors have concluded that they no longer want to be in the same political group as Wike, whom they accuse of betraying the PDP that made him who he is.
“Makinde today doesn’t want to be in the same political group with Wike any longer. This is the same thing that Bala Mohammed has said — that he doesn’t see himself being in the same camp with Wike because Wike had betrayed the PDP,” Sambo stated.
He revealed that the strategic calculus involves two possible outcomes. Either Makinde defects to the ADC entirely, or he stays in the PDP, ensures his preferred successor moves to the ADC to contest the Oyo governorship, and uses his continued PDP membership to systematically weaken the party from within.
“It’s either Makinde would be defecting to the ADC, or he will stay back, fight and ensure that his candidate who he wants to succeed him moves into that party, and they stay in the PDP and finally kill the PDP,” Sambo explained.
The underlying logic, according to the analyst, is that if the Makinde-Mohammed faction cannot resurrect the PDP in its current form, they are determined to ensure Wike cannot use the party as a platform in 2031.
“The thinking is that if they cannot resurrect the PDP right now, then Wike should not have the PDP in 2031 to be able to advance his political cause, because they already hear that he’s going to use the PDP in 2031 to advance his cause,” Sambo revealed.
He warned that party members increasingly hold three individuals — Makinde, Mohammed, and Wike — responsible for the PDP’s current state, saying that “whether the PDP survives or not, these three persons will be held responsible in the future.”
At the purported 107th NEC meeting of the PDP faction loyal to him in Abuja, Wike launched a blistering attack on Makinde, mocking both his political capabilities and his business background.
Wike said he was watching Makinde during the Oyo governor’s visit to Bauchi, where Makinde allegedly claimed he had a meeting with Wike and President Tinubu, and that Wike said they were “in control of government as well as the judiciary.”
“It’s unfortunate a fight you cannot fight, you started. Politics is not a contract work and a business venture. Politics and business are two different things,” Wike declared.
In his most pointed personal attack, Wike drew a distinction between himself and Makinde, suggesting the Oyo governor was more interested in business contracts than political power.
“Politics is not a contract of Shell. I didn’t go into politics to be a contractor. I went into politics to have power. You wanted money. You had contract of over $1.7 million. Hey, stay there. This is my own territory. Stay as a contractor,” Wike stated.
The FCT Minister also issued a warning to party members engaged in what he described as double-dealing.
“After this NEC meeting, anybody that doesn’t show commitment to the convention, don’t come back after and say you are fully back. I will not accept that,” Wike stated.
Despite the combative tone, the chairman of the PDP National Caretaker Working Committee, Abdulrahman Mohammed, struck a reconciliatory note, declaring a “no victor, no vanquished” outcome and describing the forthcoming national convention as a defining moment.
“This convention is not merely a routine exercise; it is a critical milestone that will shape the future direction of our party,” Mohammed stated.
He said the party had made significant progress in stabilising its structures and restoring confidence following recent legal and political challenges, noting that ward, local government, state, and zonal congresses had been successfully conducted nationwide.
“The recent judicial pronouncements, approached with a spirit of reconciliation and inclusiveness, have further reinforced our commitment to unity. There is no victor and no vanquished, only a shared commitment to rebuild, reposition, and strengthen our party,” Mohammed stated.
In a significant step toward holding its national convention, the Wike-backed faction announced that sale of nomination forms for the forthcoming convention had commenced.
A communiqué signed by Mohammed and Acting National Secretary Samuel Anyanwu directed all interested aspirants to comply with approved guidelines and timelines.
The NEC meeting also reaffirmed the zoning formula for national elective positions, indicating that the distribution of offices would follow established arrangements designed to balance regional interests.
“The zoning arrangement shall serve as the guiding framework for the forthcoming national convention,” the communiqué stated.
The PDP’s crisis continues to deepen as both factions pursue parallel paths. The Wike-backed faction is pushing ahead with convention preparations, while the Makinde-Mohammed camp appears to be hedging its bets between remaining in the PDP and exploring the ADC as an alternative platform.
The analyst’s revelation that the endgame strategy involves denying Wike the use of the PDP in 2031 suggests that even if the current factional crisis is eventually resolved, the underlying power struggle between these three political heavyweights will continue to define the party’s trajectory for years to come.
For the PDP — Nigeria’s dominant opposition party for most of the Fourth Republic — the question is no longer simply who leads it, but whether it will survive as a viable political force or be deliberately dismantled from within by leaders who would rather destroy it than allow their rivals to control it.
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