*Says “People Forming Camps, Generating Conspiracy Theories About Sources of Threats”
*Says “Narrow Narrative Reduces Nigeria’s Security to Single Story, Oversimplifies Situation”
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Oge Onubogu, Senior Fellow and Director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), delivered pointed testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, urging a nuanced approach to Nigeria’s escalating violence. Testifying on the Trump administration’s designation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for religious freedom violations, Onubogu emphasized that reductive narratives risk deepening divisions, while calling for Nigerian-led reforms backed by strategic US partnerships.
In her opening remarks, Onubogu critiqued the focus on Christian killings as a standalone issue. “Narratives focusing solely on the killing of Christians often overlook Nigeria’s broader insecurity and the fact that religion is a secondary factor in the violence,” she stated. She reiterated, “A narrow narrative that reduces Nigeria’s security situation to a single story and frames it solely as the persecution of Christians oversimplifies the situation.”
Addressing President Trump’s November 1 Truth Social threats of “fast, vicious, and sweet” unilateral US military strikes against “Islamic terrorists” in Nigeria, Onubogu warned of potential backlash. “If the Trump administration proceeds with unilateral military action in Nigeria, it could endanger the Christians it aims to protect and worsen divisions along religious lines,” she said. Responding to a direct question on whether such strikes would enhance safety, she affirmed, “I believe it will make it less safe.”
Onubogu elaborated on the immediate fallout from the rhetoric: “All the data points show that Nigerians value diverse societies. But even as they value diversity, experiences demonstrate low levels of trust. Already, from the threats that have been made, especially on social media, people are forming camps and generating conspiracy theories about the sources of these threats. It’s important to understand the complexities of Nigeria and how fragile the environment is. For years, members of the political class have manipulated public mistrust to gain power. Now people are forming different camps, making conflicting statements, and building conspiracy theories. Overwhelmingly, Nigerians value unity, and the current conversations are harmful to social cohesion.”
She linked inflammatory language to historical patterns: “Because of low trust levels in communities, historical conflicts show how conspiracy theories and hearsay can escalate violence. Rhetoric like this moves us farther from real solutions. Observing the discussions since these threats were made, none have produced concrete solutions from the Nigerian government, civil society, or the international community. Everyone is focused on what was said, not on resolving the issues. This is especially critical in regions like the Middle Belt, where conflicts are protracted. People live together but with very low levels of trust, and small provocations can inflame tensions.”
Onubogu advocated for Nigerian leadership in resolving these crises: “Nigeria needs to take the lead with political will. Many narratives persist because Nigerians are not receiving the justice they deserve. Impunity allows perpetrators, regardless of religion, to continue attacks, while communities develop their own narratives. The Nigerian government must acknowledge these realities and work with allies, including the United States, to address the violence. It’s vital to put faces to the numbers of victims. Violence has persisted too long, and this is an opportunity for a sustainable solution.”
Highlighting bilateral potential, she noted: “Consecutive US administrations have described Nigeria as one of the most important partnerships on the continent. Despite periods of friction, this is a moment for the US and Nigeria to reset the relationship. Citizens overwhelmingly acknowledge the high levels of insecurity, which provides an opportunity for serious discussions based on concrete benchmarks. The key mistake would be to appear as a selective intervention favoring one group. This is a chance to listen to Nigerians and work together to reduce insecurity.”
On root causes, Onubogu described a “mix of factors” driven by governance failures: “It’s a combination of factors, with failures of governance at the core. We must look holistically to identify institutional weaknesses versus a lack of political will. Once we do, we can develop proper solutions. Currently, the lack of understanding contributes to protracted conflicts.”
Praising effective US-backed programs, she drew from her Middle Belt experience: “I worked for several years on community security initiatives in the Middle Belt. Community-led peace-building programs have successfully established early warning systems and rapid responses. Interfaith mediation councils, including Christian and Muslim leaders in Kaduna, Adamawa, Benue, and Plateau States, have produced successful local outcomes.”
On conflict drivers, she stressed nuance: “Drivers of violence are complex. Some conflicts are religiously motivated, some stem from farmer-herder disputes, others from criminality. Oversimplifying conflicts as one category prevents viable solutions. For example, since the Chibok abductions in 2014, there have been six school kidnapping incidents, yet solutions remain elusive due to generalizations.”
On US-Nigeria ties, she affirmed: “This is a critical opportunity for the US to engage strategically with Nigeria. Nigeria is aware of the insecurity challenges and desires rapid solutions. The relationship must be approached with honesty and a focus on concrete outcomes.”
Finally, on government capacity, Onubogu stated: “The Nigerian government must identify inefficiencies and institutional weaknesses versus a lack of political will. Acknowledging these areas is critical for progress.”
Onubogu also recommended that President Bola Tinubu appoint a capable Nigerian ambassador to the US and offered broader counsel on tackling mass killings and insecurity through justice, accountability, and holistic governance.
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