The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) out of Nigeria, warning that such activities are worsening the country’s revenue challenges and undermining sustainable growth. The Fund also said that the recent depreciation of the Naira is not necessarily negative, noting positive steps in Nigeria’s economic management.

Speaking at the 2025 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington D.C., IMF Managing Director, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, said the Fund is placing renewed focus on tracing illicit financial flows to plug fiscal leakages.

“We believe that for countries like Nigeria, the IMF’s renewed focus on tracing Illicit Financial Flows could provide a blueprint for plugging the fiscal leakages that have long undermined revenue generation and sustainable growth,” Georgieva said.

IFFs, according to the IMF, include stolen public funds, proceeds from criminal activities, and untraceable digital transactions. These flows erode governance systems, drain public resources, and impede development, particularly in developing economies. The digital economy, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, has further complicated tracking, enabling anonymous financial transactions.

To combat these challenges, the IMF has strengthened its Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework, making monitoring of illicit financial flows a compulsory part of its annual Article IV consultations. Countries seeking IMF assistance are now required to include measures to address systemic IFFs, with technical support and training provided to local authorities to detect and respond to suspicious financial activity.

Georgieva emphasized that tackling IFFs is also a governance issue. Through the IMF’s Governance Diagnostics initiative, the Fund helps countries identify institutional weaknesses that allow corruption and financial crimes to thrive, recommending reforms to strengthen oversight.

The IMF said the depreciation of the Naira is not necessarily harmful. Financial Counsellor and Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, Mr. Tobias Adrian, stated at the Global Fiscal Sustainability Report briefing that a depreciating exchange rate can help restore economic equilibrium.

“In terms of the Nigerian economy, exchange rates are important buffers to adjust the domestic economy relative to shocks. A depreciating exchange rate is not necessarily a bad thing. It may actually be a good thing to restore equilibrium,” Adrian said.

He noted that Nigeria has strengthened its monetary policy frameworks, improved revenue collection, and enhanced transparency of foreign exchange reserves, contributing to lower inflation and more stable financial conditions.

Adrian also welcomed the regulation of stablecoins by various countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan. He said that globally, stablecoins are predominantly dollar-denominated but increasingly used worldwide. The IMF supports regulatory frameworks for digital assets and encourages countries to align local policies with international best practices.

The IMF revised Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth projection upward to 3.9 percent, citing stronger domestic fundamentals, improving investor confidence, and moderated effects of the global tariff war. Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.2 percent in 2026.

“The upward revisions reflect reduced uncertainty, Nigeria’s limited exposure to U.S. tariffs, improved hydrocarbon production, exchange rate appreciation, and stronger financial conditions,” said Denz Igan, Division Chief, Research Department, IMF.

Inflation is forecasted to decline from 31.4 percent in 2024 to 23 percent in 2025, and 22 percent in 2026, while the current account surplus is expected to narrow from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2024 to 3.6 percent in 2026 due to higher imports offsetting oil export gains.

The IMF upgraded Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth projections to 4.1 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026. While macroeconomic stability and reforms in key economies such as Ethiopia and Nigeria support resilience, resource-dependent and conflict-affected countries continue to face challenges, underscoring the need for stronger institutions, structural reforms, and improved revenue mobilization.

Georgieva and Adrian urged collaboration among governments, civil society, and international partners to strengthen governance, combat illicit flows, and ensure sustainable growth in Nigeria and the wider region.

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