The build-up to the 2027 general elections has ignited fierce succession battles in at least 10 states where governors are completing their constitutionally permitted two terms, with over 100 aspirants across multiple political parties already positioning for what promises to be one of the most competitive governorship cycles in Nigeria’s democratic history.
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Governors Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos, Dapo Abiodun of Ogun, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Mai Mala Buni of Yobe, Babagana Zulum of Borno, Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa, Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe, Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa, and AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of Kwara are all in the final lap of their tenures, setting the stage for complex succession contests shaped by zoning disputes, religious considerations, party fractures, defections, and the outsized influence of incumbents.
Lagos: Tinubu Holds The Key
The race to succeed Governor Sanwo-Olu is defined by one reality — President Tinubu’s influence. Since 1999, the state has been governed exclusively by the Tinubu political family, and 2027 is not expected to be different.
The field is crowded with names including Hakeem Muri-Okunola, the President’s Principal Private Secretary; Chief of Staff to the President Femi Gbajabiamila; Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat; House Speaker Mudasiru Obasa; Education Minister Tunji Alausa; former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode; declared aspirants Jide Adediran (Jandor) and Samuel Ajose; Senator Tokunbo Abiru; and Governor’s Chief of Staff Tayo Ayinde.
There is even a campaign around the President’s son, Seyi Tinubu, though many dismiss this as positioning for subsequent elections.
For the opposition, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour has joined the ADC for another shot at the governorship, while Funso Doherty leads PDP aspirants. However, analysts say opposition parties appear weak and would have significant ground to cover.
Oyo: The Most Crowded Field
Oyo State presents arguably the most complex succession battle, with Governor Makinde completing his second term amid agitation over zoning between the Ibadan, Oke Ogun, Ogbomoso, and Ibarapa blocs, and religious considerations as Makinde is a Christian from Ibadan.
Within the ruling PDP, aspirants include SUBEB Chairman Nureni Adeniran, House Speaker Adebo Ogundoyin, Chief of Staff Segun Ogunwuyi, Dr. Debo Akande, former Commissioner Bimbo Adekanmbi, former Deputy Governor Taofeek Arapaja, federal lawmaker Adedeji Olajide, and several others.
For the APC, Power Minister Bayo Adelabu leads the pack alongside 2023 candidate Teslim Folarin, senators Sharafadeen Ali and Abdulfatai Buhari, and multiple other aspirants. Unconventional actors like Agidigbo FM proprietor Oriyomi Hamzat are also entering the fray.
The PDP, however, faces the challenge of its ongoing national leadership crisis between the Makinde-Mohammed faction and the Wike faction.
Bauchi: Two Ministers, One Governorship
Bauchi presents the unusual spectacle of two sitting ministers — Health Minister Muhammad Ali Pate and Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar — both eyeing the same governorship seat. Both have posters and billboards across the state and pressure groups campaigning for them.
The political landscape is further complicated by speculation about Governor Bala Mohammed’s possible defection to the APC, with reports suggesting he may be offered a senatorial ticket rather than the right to choose his successor as a condition for switching.
Pate’s associate confirmed his interest, saying he would seek clearance from the President before leaving the cabinet. Other APC contenders include Senator Shehu Buba and former NNPC official Bala Wunti.
Ogun: 50-Year Injustice Debate
In Ogun State, the succession debate is dominated by the agitation that Ogun West senatorial district, which has never produced a governor in the state’s 50-year history, should be allowed to produce Abiodun’s successor.
Two leading APC aspirants from the zone — Senator Solomon Adeola and federal lawmaker Gboyega Nasir Isiaka — are at the forefront. The 20 APC lawmakers in the state House of Assembly have declared support for Adeola.
Other notable aspirants include Professor Iyabo Obasanjo, former Ambassador Sarafadeen Ishola, former CBN Deputy Governor Tunde Lemo, and broadcast journalist Modele Sarafa-Yusuf. For the opposition, PDP’s Oladipupo Adebutu and ADC’s Jimi Lawal are positioning.
Nasarawa: 30 Aspirants And A Zoning War
Nasarawa State boasts the most aspirants, with no fewer than 30 candidates across multiple parties. A political disagreement between ex-Governor Tanko Al-Makura, who wants the position thrown open, and incumbent Governor Sule, who insists on maintaining the zoning arrangement, is a defining tension.
Notable aspirants span the APC, PDP, ADC, SDP, NNPP, LP, and Action Alliance, reflecting the state’s multi-ethnic and multi-religious makeup. The defection of two-time PDP governorship candidate David Ombugadu to the APC has further reshuffled the political deck.
Kwara: Eight Declared, Religious Agitation
At least eight aspirants have formally declared in Kwara, cutting across APC, PDP, and ADC. Governor AbdulRazaq has dismissed endorsement claims, saying he is building a legacy, not a dynasty.
A coalition of Christian stakeholders has intensified advocacy for a Christian governor, noting that since state creation, only one Christian — Chief Cornelius Adebayo in 1983 — has served as civilian governor. There is also strong agitation for power to shift to Kwara North.
Speculation around Attorney-General Lateef Fagbemi as a potential aspirant adds another layer to the contest.
Borno: Senator Closest To Zulum
Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan is strongly positioning for the APC ticket in Borno, maintaining close public ties with Governor Zulum. However, his emergence from the same senatorial district as the governor could work against him.
Zulum has denied having a preferred candidate, saying he has entrusted the choice to God. The PDP has collapsed its structure into the ADC in Borno, with former governorship candidate Kashim Ibrahim Imam among those expected to contest on the opposition platform.
Adamawa: Fintiri’s Defection Reshapes Everything
Governor Fintiri’s defection from PDP to APC has fundamentally altered Adamawa’s political dynamics. Sources confirmed that one of his conditions for defecting was the right to pick his successor, who must be a grassroots leader.
The ADC has attracted ex-Governor Jibrilla Bindow, Senator Aishatu Binani, and Senator Ishaku Abbo. The APC has multiple aspirants including National Vice Chairman Mustapha Salihu. Supporters of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu are also mobilising.
Strong voices are pushing for Adamawa Central to produce the next governor, with aspirants from the zone present across all parties.
Gombe: Governor As “The Driver”
Governor Inuwa Yahaya has described himself as “the driver in charge of the movement” in Gombe, signaling his intent to shape succession. Transportation Minister Saidu Alkali, House Chief Whip Usman Bello Kumo, former Minister Isa Ali Pantami, and Finance Commissioner Muhammad Gambo Magaji are among the leading APC names.
The APC’s dominance is overwhelming, controlling 23 of 24 state assembly seats. There are growing speculations that the state could witness a Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Yobe: Former Senate President Eyes Seat
Former Senate President Ahmad Lawan is the most prominent name in the Yobe succession race, with supporters already mobilizing under the slogan “After Buni, Bade is next.” Senator Ibrahim Bomai and Senator Musa Mustapha are also strong contenders, with Mustapha believed to enjoy the backing of the incumbent governor.
Zoning has resurfaced as a contentious issue, with calls for power rotation away from Yobe East, which has dominated governorship since 1999.
Across all 10 states, several patterns emerge: zoning remains the most contentious factor in succession discussions; incumbents deny having preferred candidates while quietly shaping outcomes; the APC’s dominance means the real contest in most states is within the ruling party; opposition parties are fragmented and struggling for relevance; and the March 31 resignation deadline for political appointees will be the first major trigger for formal declarations.
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